3 Sep, 2007

“Political Risks Greater Threat To Global Economy”

Imtiaz Muqbil

Political pressures present the greatest medium-term threat to global growth, according to a report released today by the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Network.

In this dispatch:

1. “POLITICAL RISKS GREATER THREAT TO GLOBAL ECONOMY”: Political pressures present the greatest medium-term threat to global growth, according to a report released today by the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Network.

2. PENTAGON ‘THREE-DAY BLITZ’ PLAN FOR IRAN: The Pentagon has drawn up plans for massive airstrikes against 1,200 targets in Iran, designed to annihilate the Iranians’ military capability in three days, according to a national security expert quoted by the Sunday TimesOnline.

3. DO WE HAVE THE COURAGE TO STOP WAR WITH IRAN? It is going to happen, folks, unless we put our lawn chairs away on Tuesday, take part in some serious grassroots organizing and take action to prevent a wider war — while we still can, writes Ray McGovern, a member of the American Legion, and a former CIA analyst.

4. SIKHS OUTRAGED AS TURBANS FACE AIRPORT SECURITY CHECKS: A directive released by the US Transport Security Administration that authorises its 43,000 screeners to give Sikh turbans the same inspection treatment as cowboy hats and berets has triggered strong protests by the Sikh Coalition and other religious faiths.

5. NEW APEC GUIDE TO HELP GOVERNMENTS ISSUE PASSPORTS WITH MICROCHIPS: APEC has launched a new guide to help governments implement change to replace century-old passports technology with new biometric passports embedded with microchips.

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1. “POLITICAL RISKS GREATER THREAT TO GLOBAL ECONOMY”

Geneva, Switzerland, 3 September 2007 – Political pressures present the greatest medium-term threat to global growth, according to a report released today by the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Network. While global vulnerability to a US economic downturn is a major concern, continued economic expansion for the next 10 years hinges on management of political, rather than economic, challenges. These are among the findings in Global Growth@Risk, a report published by the Global Risk Network in collaboration with PricewaterhouseCoopers.

“Decision-makers can’t assume that tomorrow’s growth story will read like today’s,” said Jesse Fahnestock, a Global Leadership Fellow of the Forum’s Global Risks Programme. “The economic fundamentals are there, but political dynamics are more likely to write the next chapter.”

Published to coincide with the launch of the World Economic Forum’s Community of Global Growth Companies at the Inaugural Annual Meeting of the New Champions in Dalian, China, the report features a series of CEO Perspectives, wherein chief executives of high-growth and globally expanding corporations consider issues from the perspective of their business. This series of interviews was conducted in collaboration with PricewaterhouseCoopers..

The report surveyed more than 30 experts from business, academia and government, asking them to consider the major issues and risks affecting the regions, industries and companies at the forefront of economic growth. Their responses stress the political necessities that are emerging in many countries and the regulatory and diplomatic responses they would require. While new regulations are seen as necessary to sustain growth in the long term, there is concern that over-regulation could slow growth unnecessarily or, conversely, that failure to regulate could fuel a populist backlash against global business.

Major issues likely to put growth at risk range from geopolitical – including the struggle for energy resources and management of a new global power order – to local challenges such as management of pollution and environmental stresses. Managing the gains from growth – and the potential for rising inequalities – is the primary socio-political risk to continued global growth.

While politics is a primary concern, the report also identifies the reliance on American consumption as the key vulnerability of the global economy. While consumer markets elsewhere appear to be developing rapidly, the ability of Asian manufacturing and global commodity production to withstand a downturn in the US remains in doubt.

The report also looks at China’s growth challenges, themselves a microcosm of the Global Growth@Risk paradigm. As such, China’s ability to usher in an era of harmonious growth may be closely tied to the prospects of sustainable global growth. Further information about the Inaugural Annual Meeting of the New Champions: http://www.weforum.org/dalian

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2. PENTAGON ‘THREE-DAY BLITZ’ PLAN FOR IRAN

Sarah Baxter, Washington, September 2, 2007

THE Pentagon has drawn up plans for massive airstrikes against 1,200 targets in Iran, designed to annihilate the Iranians’ military capability in three days, according to a national security expert. Alexis Debat, director of terrorism and national security at the Nixon Center, said last week that US military planners were not preparing for “pinprick strikes” against Iran’s nuclear facilities. “They’re about taking out the entire Iranian military,” he said.

Debat was speaking at a meeting organised by The National Interest, a conservative foreign policy journal. He told The Sunday Times that the US military had concluded: “Whether you go for pinprick strikes or all-out military action, the reaction from the Iranians will be the same.” It was, he added, a “very legitimate strategic calculus”.

President George Bush intensified the rhetoric against Iran last week, accusing Tehran of putting the Middle East “under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust”. He warned that the US and its allies would confront Iran “before it is too late”.

One Washington source said the “temperature was rising” inside the administration. Bush was “sending a message to a number of audiences”, he said — to the Iranians and to members of the United Nations security council who are trying to weaken a tough third resolution on sanctions against Iran for flouting a UN ban on uranium enrichment.

Read the rest: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2369001.ece

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3. DO WE HAVE THE COURAGE TO STOP WAR WITH IRAN?

By Ray McGovern, AlterNet. Posted September 3, 2007

Ray McGovern, a member of the American Legion, was an Army infantry/intelligence officer in the sixties. He then served for 27 years as an analyst with the CIA and is now on the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. He currently works with Tell the Word, the publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in Washington, DC.

[Witnessing the build-up to an unprovoked attack on Iran is like watching a train crash in slow motion. But it can be stopped — if we do something about it.]

Why do I feel like the proverbial skunk at a Labor Day picnic? Sorry, but I thought you might want to know that this time next year there will probably be more skunks than we can handle. I fear our country is likely to be at war with Iran — and with the thousands of real terrorists Iran can field around the globe.

It is going to happen, folks, unless we put our lawn chairs away on Tuesday, take part in some serious grassroots organizing and take action to prevent a wider war — while we still can.

President George W. Bush’s speech Tuesday lays out the Bush/Cheney plan to attack Iran and how the intelligence is being “fixed around the policy,” as was the case before the attack on Iraq.

It’s not about putative Iranian “weapons of mass destruction,” not even ostensibly. It is about the requirement for a scapegoat for U.S. reverses in Iraq and the White House’s felt need to create a casus belli by provoking Iran in such a way as to “justify” armed retaliation, eventually including air strikes on its nuclear-related facilities.

Read the rest: http://www.alternet.org/audits/61328/

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4. SIKHS OUTRAGED AS TURBANS FACE AIRPORT SECURITY CHECKS

First it was just the metal detectors and body checks, then came removal of shoes, sharp objects and cigarette lighters followed by metal forks and knives as well as nail-clippers. Recently, water, liquids and gels have been placed on the list. Now comes the latest in a long list of insane security checks – permission to pat-down Sikh turbans at American airport checkpoints.

A directive released by the US Transport Security Administration that authorises its 43,000 screeners to give Sikh turbans the same inspection treatment as cowboy hats and berets has triggered strong protests by the Sikh Coalition and other religious faiths.

“The Sikh Coalition continues to be alarmed that these procedures were put in place without community consultation or warning to millions of Sikh air travelers. The Coalition is also concerned that TSA will not provide a copy of the new procedure so that it can be reviewed by the public,” the coalition said in a statement released last week.

Sikh community members who met with US TSA representatives were told that turbans are an example of headwear that could “potentially hide non-metallic threat items.” As no-one was told in advance, the Sikh Coalition took up the issue only after the complaints started pouring in from Sikhs who had been subjected to the pat-down.

Says the statement, “Sikh travelers should therefore expect that turbans will be the subject of secondary screening, regardless of whether a metal detector indicates a metallic object is in the turban.

“The purpose of the secondary screening is to detect non-metallic objects. Therefore from the TSA’s perspective, it is irrelevant whether a Sikh’s turban sets off the metal detector or not. If requested, a private area will be provided for a pat-down search of a turban.”

Although the TSA screener is not required to conduct secondary screening of a turban but “can use his or her discretion to determine whether he/she believes the turban could conceal a non-metallic threat item,” the Sikh Coalition statement said it had four principle concerns, quoted verbatim as follows:

<> “First, the Coalition is concerned that the TSA guidance on how to implement the policy specifically lists the turban as an example of headwear that can be subjected to secondary screening at the discretion of the screener. We believe that the most precious article of our faith has become part of a government-mandated profile of a person who is a terrorist threat.

<> “Second, the Coalition believes that the new procedure and guidance on how to implement them should not be kept secret. It is critical that the procedures be made public so that the millions of air travelers who are subjected to unwanted touching of their religious headdress may comment on them and understand their rights while traveling through America’s airports.

<> “Third the procedures (given the limited information on them released to the public) are disturbingly vague. Screeners have personal discretion to subject a Sikh to additional screening, a turban pat-down, or to remove the turban. With 43,000 TSA screeners nationwide, and minimal cultural competency training, the Sikh Coalition is concerned that this will lead to rampant religious profiling.

<> “Fourth, the Coalition is concerned that the new procedures were created without consulting any Sikhs or Sikh organizations. TSA officials admitted at the meeting that TSA did not consult with Sikhs or inspect a turban before they listed the turban as headwear that could contain an explosive device.”

The statement said that the Sikh coalition and a number of other organisations “will jointly respond to what we believe to be an unacceptable and unexpected policy shift by TSA. It is our hope that TSA will implement a policy that is both respectful of religious pluralism and meets America’s safety needs.

The meeting between the Sikh groups and TSA was organised after the Sikhs wrote directly to Michael Chertoff, Secretary of Homeland Security, a letter headlined “Stop Religious Profiling in US Airports.” The letter made clear why the Sikhs felt strongly about it.

“Touching a Sikh’s turban is a significant affront to his/her religious practice. In its new policy, the TSA equates searching turbans to searching a cowboy hat or a beret. This is unacceptable. A turban is a form of religious garb, not a fashion statement.”

The issue has aroused intense discussion and coverage in the Indian media and on Sikh websites. Petitions have been signed by thousands of people and websites are asking Sikhs to report unpleasant experiences.

In response, the TSA released a statement in which it “expressed understanding about the sensitivity and importance of the Sikh head dress screening.”

“TSA takes their concerns seriously and is interested in reaching a workable solution that does not compromise security,” the statement said. “”TSA will implement additional cultural awareness training for its transportation security officers and will continue dialogue with Sikhs and other groups.”

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5. NEW APEC GUIDE TO HELP GOVERNMENTS ISSUE PASSPORTS WITH MICROCHIPS

Melbourne, Australia, August 31, 2007 — APEC has launched a new guide to help governments implement change to replace century old passports technology with new biometric passports embedded with microchips. Launched today in Melbourne, the “Guide to Biometric Technology in Machine Readable Travel Documents” provides technical and case experience information for governments in the APEC region and elsewhere around the world to upgrade their passport technology.

Biometric enhanced passports that include an electronic microchip (ePassports) help protect people’s identity and facilitate secure travel. The Project Overseer for the development of the new APEC guide, Mr. David Merz, said the guide will provide practical assistance to help governments protect against the fraudulent use of passports.

“This guide is a great tool for any government setting about introducing a biometric passport,” Mr. Merz said at the launch. “The guide draws on input from technical experts as well as best practices and experiences of those governments who have already introduced ePassports. This guide will contribute significantly to identity security and travel safety within and beyond APEC.”

The guide, that is now available for download from the APEC website, includes chapters on relevant legal frameworks, privacy, project management, and funding models. These chapters can be downloaded and used by governments to plan the different stages involved in introducing ePassports.

The guide is available here: http://www.apecsec.org.sg/apec/publications/all_publications/committee_on_trade.html

The launch was attended by industry experts and representatives from governments around the region including Australia, New Zealand Papua New Guinea, Peru, Thailand and Viet Nam. ePassports, a revolutionary improvement in passport technology to replace the previous common passport design that has been in existence for centuries, was formally adopted as the standard by a League of Nations conference in 1920. The only other significant improvement before the introduction of ePassports was the agreement by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) for the adoption of machine readable passports in 1981.

Australia, as a member of the APEC Business Mobility Group, has led this APEC project to develop a web based guide to introducing ePassports. Australia began issuing ePassports to its own citizens in 2005. These ePassports contain an electronic version of the bearer’s photo and biodata, thus making the Australian ePassport more secure from fraudulent alteration.

The completion and release of the guide is one of the achievements of APEC 2007 hosted by Australia that reaches its climax with the APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Sydney next week.