5 Apr, 2011

Demographic Shifts Changing the “Face” of the World

Imtiaz Muqbil

India’s population has crossed 1.2 billion. Hispanics in the US are on the rise. Expatriate numbers in the UAE are growing far faster than the locals. China’s population is ageing by the millions. These shifts will lead to significant social, economic and geopolitical changes in future, and require commensurate shifts in the way travel & tourism does business systemwide.

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India’s Population Reaches 1,210 Million

Hispanics Account for More Than Half of U.S. Population Growth in Past Decade

China’s Ageing Issues To Be Addressed At Beijing Meeting in May

UAE Population 8.26 Million, Including 7.31 Million Foreigners

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India’s Population Reaches 1,210 Million

Source: Press Information Bureau, Government of India

NEW DELHI, (31 March 2011) — The population of India as per the provisional figures of Census 2011 is 1,210.19 million of whom 63.72 million (51.54%) are males and 586.46 million (48.46%) are females. The provisional figures of Census 2011 were released in New Delhi today by Union Home Secretary Mr G.K.Pillai and Registrar General of India Mr C. Chandramouli. The major highlights of the Census 2011 (Provisional figures) are-

* The population of India has increased by more than 181 million during the decade 2001-2011.

* Percentage growth in 2001-2011 is 17.64; males 17.19 and females 18.12.

* 2001-2011 is the first decade (with the exception of 1911-1921) which has actually added a lesser population compared to the previous decade.

* Uttar Pradesh (199.5 million) is the most populous State in the country followed by Maharashtra with 112 million.

* The percentage decadal growth rates of the six most populous States have declined during 2001-2011 compared to 1991-2001:

Uttar Pradesh (25.85% to 20.09%)

Maharashtra (22.73% to 15.99%)

Bihar (28.62% to 25.07%)

West Bengal (17.77 % to 13.93%)

Andhra Pradesh (14.59% to 11.10%)

Madhya Pradesh (24.26% to 20.30%)

During 2001-2011, as many as 25 States/UTs (Union Territories0 with a share of about 85% of the country’s population registered an annual growth rate of less than 2% as compared to, 15 States/UTs with a share of about 42% during the period 1991-2001.

* 15 States/UTs have grown by less than 1.5 per cent per annum during 2001-2011, while the number of such States/UTs was only 4 during the previous decade.

* The total number of children in the age-group 0-6 is 158.8 million (-5 million since 2001)

* Twenty States and Union Territories now have over one million children in the age group 0-6 years. On the other extreme, there are five States and Union Territories in the country that are yet to reach the one hundred thousand mark.

* Uttar Pradesh (29.7 million), Bihar (18.6 million), Maharashtra (12.8 million), Madhya Pradesh (10.5 million) and Rajasthan (10.5 million) constitute 52% children in the age group of 0-6 years.

* Population (0-6 years) 2001-2011 registered minus (-)3.08 percent growth with minus (-)2.42 for males and –3.80 for females.

* The proportion of Child Population in the age group of 0-6 years to total population is 13.1 percent while the corresponding figure in 2001 was 15.9 percent. The decline has been to the extent of 2.8 points.

* Overall sex ratio (the number of females per 1000 males) at the national level has increased by 7 points to reach 940 at Census 2011 as against 933 in Census 2001. This is the highest sex ratio recorded since Census 1971 and a shade lower than 1961. Increase in sex ratio is observed in 29 States/UTs.

* Three major States (J&K, Bihar & Gujarat) have shown decline in sex ratio as compared to Census 2001.

* Kerala with 1084 has the highest sex ratio followed by Puducherry with 1038, Daman & Diu has the lowest sex ratio of 618.

* Child sex ratio (0-6 years) is 914. Increasing trend in the child sex ratio (0-6) seen in Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Mizoram and A&N Islands. In all remaining 27 States/UTs, the child sex ratio show decline over Census 2001.

* Mizoram has the highest child sex ratio (0-6 years) of 971 followed by Meghalaya with 970. Haryana is at the bottom with ratio of 830 followed by Punjab with 846.

* Literacy rate has gone up from 64.83 per cent in 2001 to 74.04 per cent in 2011 showing an increase of 9.21 percentage points.

* Percentage growth in literacy during 2001-2011 is 38.82; males : 31.98% & females : 49.10%.

* Literates constitute 74 per cent of the total population aged seven and above and illiterates form 26 per cent.

Full details can be downloaded here.

Hispanics Account for More Than Half of U.S. Population Growth in Past Decade

Source: Pew Hispanic Center

March 25, 2011 — The 2010 Census counted 50.5 million Hispanics in the United States. Hispanics now account for 16.3% of the total U.S. population. The nation’s Latino population, which was 35.3 million in 2000, grew 43% over the decade. The Hispanic population also accounted for most of the nation’s growth (56%) from 2000 to 2010.

Among children ages 17 and younger, there were 17.1 million Latinos in 2010, or 23.1% of this age group, according to an analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center. The number of Latino children grew 39% over the decade. In 2000, there were 12.3 million Hispanic children, who were 17.1% of the population under age 18.

There were 33.3 million Hispanics ages 18 and older in 2010, a 45% increase from 2000. Hispanics made up 14.2% of the adult population in 2010, compared with 11% and 23 million people in 2000.

Racial and ethnic minorities accounted for 91.7% of the nation’s growth over the decade; non-Hispanic whites accounted for the remaining 8.3%.

Hispanics, who can be of any race, are the nation’s largest minority group. Looking at the major groups of single-race non-Hispanics in 2010, 196.8 million (63.7%) were white, 37.7 million (12.2%) were black, and 14.5 million (4.7%) were Asian. There were 6 million non-Hispanics, or 1.9% of the U.S. population, who checked more than one race.

By race, more than half of Hispanics — 53%, or 26.7 million people — identified themselves as white alone, an increase from 2000 when 47.9% did. The next largest group, 36.7% or 18.5 million Hispanics, identified themselves as “some other race,” a decline from 2000, when 42.2% did. An additional 6%, compared with 6.3% in 2000, checked multiple races.

Although the numerical growth of the Hispanic population since 2000 — more than 15 million — surpassed the totals for the previous two decades, the growth rate of 43% was somewhat slower than previous decades. Growth rates topped 50% in the 1980s (53%) and 1990s (58%).

The count of the nation’s Hispanic population was slightly larger than expected. The 2010 Census count of Hispanics was 955,000 people and 1.9% larger than the Census Bureau’s latest population estimate for Hispanics. In some states, especially with small Hispanic populations, the gap was wider.

Geographically, most Hispanics still live in nine states that have large, long-standing Latino communities — Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, New Mexico, New Jersey, New York and Texas — but the share living in other states has been growing.

In 2010, 76% of Latinos lived in these nine states, compared with 81% in 2000 and 86% in 1990. (In 2000, 50% of Hispanics lived in California and Texas alone. In 2010, that share was 46.5 %.) Despite the pattern of dispersion, however, there are more Latinos living in Los Angeles County (4.7 million) than in any state except California and Texas.

As the accompanying charts show, the states with the largest Hispanic populations include eight with more than a million Hispanics, the largest of which is California, where 14 million Latinos were counted.

The dozen states where Hispanics are the largest share of the population include five where Latinos are more than one-in-four state residents-New Mexico, Texas, California, Arizona and Nevada.

The states with the largest percent growth in their Hispanic populations include nine where the Latino population more than doubled, including a swath in the southeast United States — Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee and South Carolina. The Hispanic population also more than doubled in Maryland and South Dakota.

In six states, growth in the Hispanic population accounted for all of those states’ population growth; if the Hispanic population had not grown, those states would not have grown. They included Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island. In Michigan, the state population declined over the decade but the Hispanic population grew.

Looking at the Latino population by region, the West and South are home to the most Hispanics, while growth has been most rapid in the South and Midwest. In 2010, 20.6 million Hispanics lived in the West, 18.2 million lived in the South, seven million lived in the Northeast and 4.7 million lived in the Midwest.

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China’s Ageing Issues To Be Addressed At Beijing Meeting in May

SINGAPORE, April 1, 2011 /PRNewswire-Asia/ — From the 24th to the 27th of May 2011, retirement industry leaders from China and the rest of the world will meet at Retirement Living World China 2011. The event will be hosted by China Association of Social Workers and in partnership with IMAPAC.

With over 167 million people above the age of 60 years old, the senior population of China is greater than the entire population of Germany and France put together. Among which 18.99 million are over the age of 80, but the estimated number of retirement home beds to cater for this increasingly aged population only comes to 2.77 million. This discrepancy between retirement village capacity and potential market demand of the aged population means that many more retirement homes and villages will need to be built.

To handle this increasingly pertinent ageing problem in China, the Chinese government has come up with a package of incentives this January to encourage private developers to share some of the burden. This action seems to be baring fruits as giant real-estate developers Vanke and Poly announced their intentions to enter China’s retirement living industry, shortly after insurance giant PICC made the same move.

With new players attempting entry into a new market, partnership activities are forecast to grow. The recent tie-up of Shandong Taishan Real Estate and Time Sharing Holdings are a good example.

Recognizing the industry’s needs and supported by China Association of Social Workers, Retirement Living World China is slated to bring together a distinguished panel of speakers including top minds from The Chinese Government, Chinese and International retirement village developers, aged care operators, NGOs and other key stakeholders to address challenges and explore opportunities.

Participants will discuss business strategies, market trends, partnerships models, investments and financing opportunities to facilitate success in China’s retirement industry. Meanwhile, successful case studies, lessons learnt regulations, government incentives and best practices will be shared by key speakers from across 5 continents. Debates and open forum discussions on hot topics such as how to increase the cultural acceptance of retirement living in China will also be staged.

Key speaking faculty include: Qingchun Yan, Deputy Director of China National Committee on Ageing, Kevin Ryan, Managing Director of Waterbrook Lifestyle Resorts, Mark Spitalnik, Founder and CEO of China Senior Care International, Charles Marshall, Managing Director of Merrill Gardens (China), Norah Barlow, CEO of Summerset Retirement Villages, Xue Yao, President of Le-Amor, Hou Yong Jie, CEO of Shandong Taishan Real Estate, WTJ Rauch, CEO of CPOA, Kai Ti Zhang, Director of China Research Center on Ageing and Fengbo Zhu, President of Beijing Sun Cities Group, and many more.

Cross cultural understanding and partnerships will be formed at Retirement Living World China 2011. This will further add to the momentum that China’s retirement industry is enjoying and fastern the steps China is taking to improve the living standards of its seniors.

For more information click here.

UAE Population 8.26 million, Including 7.31 million Foreigners

2 April 2011 (Khaleej Times) – The UAE’s population has grown exponentially to 8.26 million in mid-2010, a growth of 64.5% in four years, as strong economic growth attracted workers from all over the world.

According to latest population estimates put out by the National Bureau of Statistics on last Thursday, the population of Emiratis have increased by 96,833 to 947,997, or 11.47 per cent, in the last four years. The number of expatriates has increased from 4.16 million in 2006 to an estimated 7.31 million in 2010.

The bureau has based its estimates on administrative records of the Ministry of Interior and data on births and deaths obtained from the Ministry of Health.

Abu Dhabi, the largest emirate in terms of land mass, has the biggest population of 404,546, or 42 per cent, of the UAE nationals also.

The bureau said that population in mid-2010 was estimated using the model of exponential growth between 2008 and 2009 due to lack of actual population figures. It said that population census, which was scheduled to take place in April 2010 was not conducted. Indians, Pakistanis and others form majority of the population in the country.

The UAE’s expatriate population was 7.266 million in mid-2009, just before the economic meltdown happened, which rose to 7.31 million in mid-2010, showing an increase of 49,458 despite the fact that thousands of jobs were eaten up by the economic crisis. However, the economy is on recovery mode since then, after a brief period of slow growth, due to the impact of the global economic crisis.

Dubai’s economy may grow six per cent in 2012 after expanding 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent this year, Farouk Soussa, Citigroup Inc’s chief economist for the Middle East, said last week.

“The UAE’ economy is expected to grow closer to 4 per cent this year,” according to Mohammed Lahouel, chief economist at Dubai’s Department of Economic Development.

The new statistics show net migration inflows dropped from 1.15 million in 2007 and 1.8 million in 2008 to a mere 57,793 people in 2009, when the UAE economy contracted by 2.5 per cent.

Download the estimates here.