10 Apr, 2012

Poll Shows Majority in U.S. Has No Appetite for Iran Conflict

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NEW YORK, April 10, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — As the United States has removed itself from one extended military conflict in the Middle East — in Iraq — another one possibly looms on the horizon, brought on by Iran’s suspected nuclear program and, among other things, Israel’s desire to abolish it.

The U.S. has a tricky and nuanced road to navigate, made only more complicated by Israel’s role, the rising price of oil, and the presidential election in November.  When Americans were asked about various items related to the potential conflict with Iran, the responses reflect the complicated nature of the issue.  Seven in ten Americans agree that Iran’s nuclear capabilities pose a threat to the United States (72%), yet what action the United States should take in response is less clear.

Over half of U.S. adults say that if Israel takes action against Iran’s nuclear program that the U.S. should support Israel (56%), yet fewer than half of Americans say Israel should take action to destroy Iran’s nuclear program (45%) and fewer believe that the U.S. should take this action themselves.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,451 adults surveyed online between March 12 and 19, 2012 by Harris Interactive. See source of original press release here.

While a majority of all U.S. adults agree that Iran’s nuclear capabilities pose a threat to the United States this belief is stronger among older generations; 77%-79% of Baby Boomers (ages 48-66) and Matures (ages 67+) agree, compared to 63%-71% of Echo Boomers (ages 18-35) and Gen X (ages 36-47) who do.  The older generations are in similar agreement about the U.S. supporting Israel if Israel takes action against Iran’s nuclear program: over three in five Baby Boomers (63%) and Matures (68%) say the U.S. should support Israel, yet just 55% of Gen X and 45% of Echo Boomers respectively say the same.

There is a less strong opinion on whether Israel should take military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities.  Approximately half (47%-51%) of Gen X, Baby Boomers and Matures say Israel should, although just 38% of Echo Boomers agree. If Americans are uncertain about how Israel should act, they are even more uncertain about what the U.S. should do:

• Overall 45% of U.S. adults agree that the United States should NOT take military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, 39% disagree and 16% are not at all sure;
• Matures (aged 67+) are most likely to say that the U.S. should not take action against Iran and Gen X is least likely to say this (40%).

Political Differences

Military engagements and involvement with Israel are usually politically charged issues, but that sense is even more escalated in an election year.  Republicans, Democrats and Independents show a different mind when considering Iran’s nuclear situation:

• While a majority of all political parties say that Iran’s nuclear capabilities pose a threat to the United States and that if Israel takes action against Iran the U.S. should support Israel, Republicans are the most likely to say these things (83% say Iran poses a threat and 70% want the U.S. to support Israel). Democrats and Independents agree that Iran poses a threat (70% and 73% say so respectively), yet these groups are less strongly in favor of supporting Israel taking action (51%-57% agree the U.S. should do so);
• When asked directly if Israel should take military action against Iran’s nuclear program Republicans agree they should (59%), yet significantly fewer Democrats and Independents say the same (40% and 45%);
• On the other hand, a majority of Democrats say that the U.S. should not take military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear program (52%), yet fewer than half of Independents (46%) and Republicans (37%) agree.

Taking a more philosophical look, interestingly a majority of Americans — in all political parties — disagree that Iran has the right to continue working on its nuclear program (65%-71% of Republicans, Democrats and Independents say this).

So What?

Although most reports indicate that neither Israel nor the U.S. is likely to take immediate military action against Iran — the results of which could be enormous and costly — the continued discussion and analysis on what each country should do might have consequences of its own, particularly if Iran sees the ongoing discussion as provocation unto itself.  It will be interesting to see how President Obama handles the discussions and decisions moving forward — it seems unlikely that he would want to enter into a new military engagement, yet the potential threat from Iran is felt by Americans, the pro-Israel lobby is strong, and the U.S. demand for oil continues to be pervasive.

TABLE 1: IRAN’S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES

“Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with the following statements.”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 2: IRAN’S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES

“Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with the following statements.”

Summary of those saying “strongly agree” or “somewhat agree”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 3: IRAN’S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES

“Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with the following statements.”

Summary of those saying “strongly disagree” or “somewhat disagree”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between March 12 and 19, 2012 among 2,451 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

The Harris Poll® #39, April 10, 2012

By Samantha Braverman, Sr. Project Researcher, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world’s leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American and European offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us — and our clients — stay ahead of what’s next.

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