Distinction in travel journalism
Is independent travel journalism important to you?
Click here to keep it independent

7 Apr, 2025

Crisis-hit Thai tourism staring down an abyss

Bangkok — Led by sharp drops in its two top source-markets, Thailand ended the January-March first quarter with 9.5 million arrivals, an anemic 1.91% increase over the 9.37 million in the first quarter of 2024. Most disturbing is the downward trend from a high of 3,709,102 arrivals in January to 3,119,445 in February and 2,720,457 in March.

China, still suffering from the after-effects of the scam centre scandals, has plunged from 662,779 arrivals in January to 297,113 in March. Neighbouring Malaysia dropped significantly in March due to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan (see full chart of arrivals from 91 countries below).

This month, April, was widely projected to be a revival month thanks to the popular Songkran New Year festivities. It has already been hit by the March 28 earthquake and the April 02 Trump “tariffquake”.

T้he April-September period is low season. The long-stay European market declines but in recent years has been compensated by the short-stay intra-Asia/Pacific markets and the long-stay Middle East. That is looking less likely this year, thanks to the economic impact of the “tariffquake.”

The Chinese market, too, is unlikely to pick up robustly. There are clear indications that China is following the Japanese example and shifting from being an outbound market to an inbound destination.

Thai industry analysts focus excessively, and mistakenly, on the top-producing markets. In fact, the scale of the decline is across the board, from long-haul to short-haul markets, even from neighbouring countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia. Of the 91 countries listed in full in the chart below, 65 countries reported declines.

All told, the pre-quakes target of 39 million arrivals for 2025 is a write-off. The Tourism Authority of Thailand is now looking at 36-37 million.

Recovery prospects are clouded by the fact that Thailand is now an ageing destination desperately trying to reinvent itself by putting old wine in a new bottle. It is suffering from over-exposure and facing formidable competition from equally attractive, better value for money and more competitive destinations such as Sri Lanka, Vietnam and even neighbouring Cambodia.

The constant barrage of bad publicity about the recurring crises is not helping.

The country is looking to India, another short-haul, mass-tourism market, to prop up the numbers. The consequence is that destinations such as Pattaya are being flooded with Indian visitors on low-cost package tours, many of them males travelling alone in search of the obvious.

Much hope is now being pinned on the legalisation of casinos. But its perceived economic and commercial benefits are on a collision course with those citing its multiple long-term negative socio-cultural impacts, the lack of confidence in enforcement mechanisms and contradiction with the country’s Buddhist values.

Like the building collapse, Thailand as a whole and Thai tourism specifically are facing some serious “structural problems” which require deep introspection and soul-searching solutions.

That level of intellect has yet to emerge within the living-in-denial travel & tourism industry, which is well-known for sweeping issues under the carpet.

International Tourist Arrivals Jan – March 2025 (P)

Country of Nationality Jan Feb Mar % change Feb-March 2025
China 662,779   371,542      297,113 -20.03
Malaysia 443,015   418,045      292,436 -30.05
Russian Federation 255,920   230,600      235,682 2.20
India 185,809   169,988      187,973 10.58
Korea (Republic of) 209,065   168,090      120,775 -28.15
Germany 112,828   114,138      114,276 0.12
Japan 87,441   120,130      109,173 -9.12
United Kingdom 121,532   107,316      106,268 -0.98
USA 118,038   102,542      100,051 -2.43
Laos 94,271      78,253 92,192 17.81
Singapore 77,555      64,585 81,349 25.96
Taiwan 116,779   100,371 79,879 -20.42
France 110,515   128,630 75,971 -40.94
Indonesia 82,919      70,389 66,486 -5.54
Vietnam 64,094      69,433 63,945 -7.90
Australia 82,116      57,499 59,395 3.30
Myanmar 50,067      44,157 57,188 29.51
Philippines 48,987      47,601 51,046 7.24
Cambodia 46,001      43,533 41,087 -5.62
Hong Kong (China) 69,047      43,411 37,395 -13.86
Israel 36,790      33,111 33,613 1.52
Canada 36,225      32,298 28,198 -12.69
Italy 41,045      33,115 25,857 -21.92
Poland 39,420      40,307 24,059 -40.31
Kazakhstan 31,906      26,121 23,517 -9.97
Sweden 41,975      35,536 23,215 -34.67
Netherlands 32,826      25,251 20,955 -17.01
Switzerland 23,216      22,209 17,460 -21.38
Denmark 27,253      26,648 16,334 -38.70
Spain 15,151      14,124 13,545 -4.10
Austria 17,671      16,110 11,824 -26.60
Finland 18,314      14,438 11,375 -21.21
Turkey 15,635      11,684 10,727 -8.19
Norway 19,174      16,612 10,277 -38.14
Belgium 13,029      13,697    8,953 -34.64
Iran     4,814 4,753    8,912 87.50
Czech Republic 11,547      12,646    8,321 -34.20
Sri Lanka     5,726 6,491    7,766 19.64
Ireland     8,512 6,426    7,270 13.13
New Zealand     8,809 6,143    7,172 16.75
Brazil     7,789 6,245    7,068 13.18
Bangladesh 13,237      10,433    6,202 -40.55
Romania     8,921 8,537    5,338 -37.47
Portugal     5,222 4,811    5,232 8.75
South  Africa     4,931 3,579    5,009 39.96
Ukraine     7,348 5,358    4,817 -10.10
Uzbekistan 11,205 7,276    4,673 -35.78
Mexico     3,230 3,394    4,628 36.36
Hungary     8,830 6,849    4,571 -33.26
Saudi Arabia 17,431 9,231    4,469 -51.59
Slovakia     5,104 5,895    4,455 -24.43
Nepal     4,414 4,431    4,292 -3.14
Belarus     5,347 4,516    4,178 -7.48
Pakistan     6,267 6,761    3,736 -44.74
U.A.E.     5,728 5,170    3,451 -33.25
Argentina     4,861 3,462    3,396 -1.91
Lithuania     4,418 4,010    3,183 -20.62
Mongolia 12,082 4,752    2,569 -45.94
Colombia     2,011 1,517    2,568 69.28
Estonia     4,202 4,051    2,484 -38.68
Bulgaria     3,571 3,128    2,462 -21.29
Greece     3,425 2,726    2,279 -16.40
Kuwait     8,489 4,086    2,065 -49.46
Macao (China)     3,635 1,976    1,993 0.86
Qatar     2,384 1,757    1,851 5.35
Bhutan     4,539 2,729    1,805 -33.86
Latvia     2,047 1,596    1,778 11.40
Chile     2,127 2,620    1,772 -32.37
Mauritius     1,638 1,298    1,437 10.71
Serbia     2,303 1,643    1,372 -16.49
Jordan     1,570 1,427    1,295 -9.25
Oman     8,099 6,325    1,213 -80.82
Croatia     2,263 1,848    1,161 -37.18
Egypt     1,286 1,251    1,130 -9.67
Slovenia     1,590 2,579    1,125 -56.38
Ethiopia     1,113 1,163    1,111 -4.47
Maldives     1,700 1,762    1,052 -40.30
Kyrgyzstan     3,397 2,092    1,046 -50.00
Iraq 884 1,025 895 -12.68
Lebanon 516 545 891 63.49
Brunei     1,306 1,075 856 -20.37
Peru 776 749 844 12.68
Morocco     2,720 1,989 829 -58.32
Bahrain     2,011 950 696 -26.74
Luxembourg 652 763 634 -16.91
Uruguay 325 361 441 22.16
Cyprus 544 471 424 -9.98
Iceland 789 618 355 -42.56
Kenya 342 303 338 11.55
Yemen 727 491 274 -44.20
North Korea 2 12        2 -83.33
         
Remark: P = Preliminary figures        
Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports (as of 3 Apr 2025)