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27 Nov, 2013

Major Report Details Potential Costs of Climate Change in the Pacific – ADB

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Sydney, 26 November 2013, ADB Media release – The economic loss suffered by the Pacific region could range from 2.9% to as high as 12.7% of annual GDP by 2100, according to a new study from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Economics of Climate Change in the Pacific includes modeling of future climate over the Pacific region, assessments of the potential impacts on agriculture, fisheries, tourism, coral reefs, and human health, and predictions of the potential economic impact of climate change for specific sectors and economies under various emissions scenarios.

“It is critical that countries contributing to the problem of climate change step up to assist Pacific friends and neighbors in the fight to protect their countries against natural disasters, crop losses, and forced migration,” said Xianbin Yao, Director General of ADB’s Pacific Department. “Our findings show that if not adequately addressed, climate change could overturn the region’s development achievements.”

According to the report, the most significant economic losses would be felt in Papua New Guinea (PNG), where climate change impacts could trigger a loss of up to 15.2% of its GDP by 2100. Timor-Leste’s GDP is predicted to drop by up to 10%, followed by Vanuatu at 6.2%, Solomon Islands at 4.7%, Fiji at 4.0% and Samoa at 3.8%.

Under a medium emissions scenario, Fiji, PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste and Vanuatu could see temperatures rise by 2-3°C by 2070, which could lead to significant decreases in rain-fed agriculture, reduced fish catches, widespread coral bleaching, and falling tourism numbers.

The report notes that the negative effect on agriculture contributes to most of the total economic cost of climate change in the Pacific, and estimates that the Pacific region could require $447 million until 2050, and up to $775 million or 2.5% of GDP per year to prepare for the worst scenario. The cost of adaptation would be significantly less under lower emissions scenarios.

The report recommends policy leaders take urgent action to mainstream climate change mitigation into development planning and develop forward-looking adaptation strategies. The report also recommends climate-proofing infrastructure to improve long-term sustainability and boosting capacity of Pacific countries to deal with climate change on their own. Pacific countries will also need dramatically improved access to global and regional climate change funds.

Some of the report’s findings include the following:

  • The Pacific nations are uniquely sensitive to the manifold effects of climate change. The effects of climate change are projected to intensify in the coming decades. The combination and interaction of geographic, economic, environmental, and demographic factors are expected to make the Pacific region particularly sensitive to climate change. All of these factors should therefore be duly taken into account as the region moves forward in adapting to a changing climate;
  • Mainstreaming climate change actions in development planning is crucial to minimize the impacts of climate change; and
  • A forward-looking adaptation strategy is key to addressing the multitude of climate change impacts, with low-regret options and built-in flexibility as basis for a robust adaptation pathway.